Transition of cancer in populations in India

Background & objectivesAn assessment of transition of cancer in India during the past 30 years, according to changes in demographic and epidemiologic risk factors was undertaken.Materials & methodsCancer registry data (http://www.ncdirindia.org), (population coverage <10%), was compared with transition in life-expectancy and prevalence on smoking, alcohol and obesity. We fitted linear regression to the natural logarithm of the estimated incidence rates of various cancer registries in India.ResultsBurden of cancer in India increased from 0.6 million in 1991 to 1.4 million in 2015. Among males, common cancers are lung (12.0%), mouth (11.4%), prostate (7.0%), and tongue (7.0%) and among females, they are breast (21.0%), cervix-uteri (12.1%), ovary (6.9%), and lung (4.9%) in 2012. Increased life-expectancy and population growth as well as increased use of alcohol and increased prevalence of overweight/obesity reflected an increase in all cancers in both genders except a reduction in infection-related cancers such as cervix-uteri and tobacco-related cancers such as pharynx (excludes nasopharynx) and oesophagus.Interpretation & conclusionTransition in demographics and epidemiologic risk factors, reflected an increase in all cancers in both genders except a reduction in a few cancers. The increasing incidence of cancer and its associated factors demands a planned approach to reduce its burden. The burden assessment needs to be strengthened by increasing the population coverage of cancer registries. Continued effort for tobacco prevention and public health efforts for reducing obesity and alcohol consumption are needed to reduce the cancer burden.     

Trait–performance relationships of grassland plant species differ between common garden and field conditions

The way functional traits affect growth of plant species may be highly context‐specific. We asked which combinations of trait values are advantageous under field conditions in managed grasslands as compared to conditions without competition and land‐use. In a two‐year field experiment, we recorded the performance of 93 species transplanted into German grassland communities differing in land‐use intensity and into a common garden, where species grew unaffected by land‐use under favorable conditions regarding soil, water, and space. The plants’ performance was characterized by two independent dimensions (relative growth rates (RGR) of height and leaf length vs. aboveground biomass and survival) that were differently related to the eight focal key traits in our study (leaf dry matter content (LDMC), specific leaf area (SLA), height, leaf anatomy, leaf persistence, leaf distribution, vegetative reproduction, and physical defense). We applied multivariate procrustes analyses to test for the correspondence of the optimal trait–performance relationships between field and common garden conditions. RGRs were species‐specific and species ranks of RGRs in the field, and the common garden were significantly correlated. Different traits explained the performance in the field and the common garden; for example, leaf anatomy traits explained species performance only in the field, whereas plant height was found to be only important in the common garden. The ability to reproduce vegetatively, having leaves that are summer‐persistent and with high leaf dry matter content (LDMC) were traits of major importance under both settings, albeit the magnitude of their influence differed slightly between the field and the common garden experiment. All optimal models included interactions between traits, pointing out the necessity to analyze traits in combination. The differences between field and common garden clearly demonstrate context dependency of trait‐based growth models, which results in limited transferability of favorable trait combinations between different environmental settings.     

Phenological mismatch in Arctic‐breeding shorebirds: Impact of snowmelt and unpredictable weather conditions on food availability and chick growth

The ecological consequences of climate change have been recognized in numerous species, with perhaps phenology being the most well‐documented change. Phenological changes may have negative consequences when organisms within different trophic levels respond to environmental changes at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches between predators and their prey. This may be especially apparent in the Arctic, which has been affected more by climate change than other regions, resulting in earlier, warmer, and longer summers. During a 7‐year study near Utqia?vik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological mismatch in relation to food availability and chick growth in a community of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds experiencing advancement of environmental conditions (i.e., snowmelt). Our results indicate that Arctic‐breeding shorebirds have experienced increased phenological mismatch with earlier snowmelt conditions. However, the degree of phenological mismatch was not a good predictor of food availability, as weather conditions after snowmelt made invertebrate availability highly unpredictable. As a result, the food available to shorebird chicks that were 2–10 days old was highly variable among years (ranging from 6.2 to 28.8 mg trap^?1 day^?1 among years in eight species), and was often inadequate for average growth (only 20%–54% of Dunlin and Pectoral Sandpiper broods on average had adequate food across a 4‐year period). Although weather conditions vary among years, shorebirds that nested earlier in relation to snowmelt generally had more food available during brood rearing, and thus, greater chick growth rates. Despite the strong selective pressure to nest early, advancement of nesting is likely limited by the amount of plasticity in the start and progression of migration. Therefore, long‐term climatic changes resulting in earlier snowmelt have the potential to greatly affect shorebird populations, especially if shorebirds are unable to advance nest initiation sufficiently to keep pace with seasonal advancement of their invertebrate prey.     

Long‐term sound and movement recording tags to study natural behavior and reaction to ship noise of seals

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Coevolution is linked with phenotypic diversification but not speciation in avian brood parasites

Coevolution is often invoked as an engine of biological diversity. Avian brood parasites and their hosts provide one of the best-known examples of coevolution. Brood parasites lay their eggs in the nests of other species, selecting for host defences and reciprocal counteradaptations in parasites. In theory, this arms race should promote increased rates of speciation and phenotypic evolution. Here, we use recently developed methods to test whether the three largest avian brood parasitic lineages show changes in rates of phenotypic diversity and speciation relative to non-parasitic lineages. Our results challenge the accepted paradigm, and show that there is little consistent evidence that lineages of brood parasites have higher speciation or extinction rates than non-parasitic species. However, we provide the first evidence that the evolution of brood parasitic behaviour may affect rates of evolution in morphological traits associated with parasitism. Specifically, egg size and the colour and pattern of plumage have evolved up to nine times faster in parasitic than in non-parasitic cuckoos. Moreover, cuckoo clades of parasitic species that are sympatric (and share similar host genera) exhibit higher rates of phenotypic evolution. This supports the idea that competition for hosts may be linked to the high phenotypic diversity found in parasitic cuckoos.     

Climate mediates the effects of disturbance on ant assemblage structure

Many studies have focused on the impacts of climate change on biological assemblages, yet little is known about how climate interacts with other major anthropogenic influences on biodiversity, such as habitat disturbance. Using a unique global database of 1128 local ant assemblages, we examined whether climate mediates the effects of habitat disturbance on assemblage structure at a global scale. Species richness and evenness were associated positively with temperature, and negatively with disturbance. However, the interaction among temperature, precipitation and disturbance shaped species richness and evenness. The effect was manifested through a failure of species richness to increase substantially with temperature in transformed habitats at low precipitation. At low precipitation levels, evenness increased with temperature in undisturbed sites, peaked at medium temperatures in disturbed sites and remained low in transformed sites. In warmer climates with lower rainfall, the effects of increasing disturbance on species richness and evenness were akin to decreases in temperature of up to 9°C. Anthropogenic disturbance and ongoing climate change may interact in complicated ways to shape the structure of assemblages, with hot, arid environments likely to be at greatest risk.     

山西省三级甲等综合医院重点疾病重返情况分析

目的 通过分析山西省三级甲等综合医院2014年上半年重点疾病患者出院当天、2～15天内、16～31天内的重返情况,探索发生的根本原因,为医院医疗服务质量的评价与改善、政策的制定提供科学的管理依据。方法 采用Microsoft Excel数据库和SPSS22.0 for Windows软件对各医院重点疾病的三种重返情况进行分析,并对各医院18种重点疾病的重返率进行了排序。结果 重返现象的发生主要集中在出院2～31天内,而各医院18种重点疾病中出院2～31天内重返率最高的前3位疾病中均有“恶性肿瘤术后化疗、恶性肿瘤维持性化学治疗”。结论 恶性肿瘤术后化疗与维持性化学治疗此种较高的重返现象发生在三级甲等综合医院,不利于优质医疗资源的合理应用。     

Demographic compensation among populations: what is it,how does it arise and what are its implications?

Most species are exposed to significant environmental gradients across their ranges, but vital rates (survival, growth, reproduction and recruitment) need not respond in the same direction to those gradients. Opposing vital rate trends across environments, a phenomenon that has been loosely called ‘demographic compensation’, may allow species to occupy larger geographical ranges and alter their responses to climate change. Yet the term has never been precisely defined, nor has its existence or strength been assessed for multiple species. Here, we provide a rigorous definition, and use it to develop a strong test for demographic compensation. By applying the test to data from 26 published, multi‐population demographic studies of plants, we show that demographic compensation commonly occurs. We also investigate the mechanisms by which this phenomenon arises by assessing which demographic processes and life stages are most often involved. In addition, we quantify the effect of demographic compensation on variation in population growth rates across environmental gradients, a potentially important determinant of the size of a species’ geographical range. Finally, we discuss the implications of demographic compensation for the responses of single populations and species’ ranges to temporal environmental variation and to ongoing environmental trends, e.g. due to climate change.     

The role of the uplift of the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau for the evolution of Tibetan biotas

Biodiversity is unevenly distributed on Earth and hotspots of biodiversity are often associated with areas that have undergone orogenic activity during recent geological history (i.e. tens of millions of years). Understanding the underlying processes that have driven the accumulation of species in some areas and not in others may help guide prioritization in conservation and may facilitate forecasts on ecosystem services under future climate conditions. Consequently, the study of the origin and evolution of biodiversity in mountain systems has motivated growing scientific interest. Despite an increasing number of studies, the origin and evolution of diversity hotspots associated with the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP) remains poorly understood. We review literature related to the diversification of organisms linked to the uplift of the QTP. To promote hypothesis‐based research, we provide a geological and palaeoclimatic scenario for the region of the QTP and argue that further studies would benefit from providing a complete set of complementary analyses (molecular dating, biogeographic, and diversification rates analyses) to test for a link between organismic diversification and past geological and climatic changes in this region. In general, we found that the contribution of biological interchange between the QTP and other hotspots of biodiversity has not been sufficiently studied to date. Finally, we suggest that the biological consequences of the uplift of the QTP would be best understood using a meta‐analysis approach, encompassing studies on a variety of organisms (plants and animals) from diverse habitats (forests, meadows, rivers), and thermal belts (montane, subalpine, alpine, nival). Since the species diversity in the QTP region is better documented for some organismic groups than for others, we suggest that baseline taxonomic work should be promoted.     

On null hypotheses in survival analysis

The conventional nonparametric tests in survival analysis, such as the log‐rank test, assess the null hypothesis that the hazards are equal at all times. However, hazards are hard to interpret causally, and other null hypotheses are more relevant in many scenarios with survival outcomes. To allow for a wider range of null hypotheses, we present a generic approach to define test statistics. This approach utilizes the fact that a wide range of common parameters in survival analysis can be expressed as solutions of differential equations. Thereby, we can test hypotheses based on survival parameters that solve differential equations driven by cumulative hazards, and it is easy to implement the tests on a computer. We present simulations, suggesting that our tests perform well for several hypotheses in a range of scenarios. As an illustration, we apply our tests to evaluate the effect of adjuvant chemotherapies in patients with colon cancer, using data from a randomized controlled trial.